Kabul has fallen.What now? what happen to next in Kabul
It is up to Afghanistan to decide what kind of Country it wants to be and to fight for it.
The Americans spent 20 years and bazillion dollars, trained Afghani troops, pushed Taliban to the margins and then finally packed their bags. On the date of departure, the Afghani army outnumbered the Taliban perhaps 3 to 1. And they were rolled over in weeks.
As of 8/14/21, the fall of Kabul is very much imminent. In the past 72–48 hours Herat and Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second and third most populous cities have fallen to the Taliban. Mazar-i-Sharif, by the border with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan appears to be the only remaining provincial capital of strategic significance holding out.
Yesterday, The US announced in a major reversal of its withdrawal that it was scrambling to redeploy 3 battalions or about 3,000 troops. The US is hoping to boost crumbling Afghan defenses to allow for an orderly withdrawal from the capital.
Make no mistake of it, the US is not hoping to regain any territory. At the height of the war, the US had over 100,000 troops in the country, however it was still unable to defeat the Taliban. The current deployment is designed more than anything else to buy time.
As recently as a week ago, it was estimated that Afghan troops could hold onto the provincial capitals like Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif and Herat for another 30 days. These same projections estimated that Kabul could hold out for another 90 days. However, the fall of Herat and Kandahar in the past 72–48 hours have thrown these projections out the window.
The arrival of 3,000 US troops will likely help slow the Taliban’s advance on the Afghan capital and buy time. However, the Biden administration has to give up on the orderly, draw down that he had planned. Afghan forces are simply crumbling too fast.
As a result, the Biden government is likely going to be forced into a situation, where it has to deploy more troops and assets to the country itself to stage a fighting retreat to ensure an orderly withdrawal. It would hardly be surprising if the US government was forced to reverse other decisions related to the withdrawal plan, including allowing for the use of air strikes against the Taliban to cover the US’s withdrawal. Nevertheless, even with troop increases beyond the already announced 3,000 and significant air strikes to cover the US’s retreat, the best the US and Afghan government can hope for is to buy a month or two.
Even in next to 200 yrs they have no future the Taliban will become god level oilgrachy with support of few rich Islamic nation who want their interests played by Taliban…
Nothing. Life goes on.
A country becomes what its people are. People of Afghanistan failed to unite against the oppressive Taliban, in spite of their earlier experience with them. In the earlier Taliban regime, a brutal Sharia law was enforced, human rights were violated and women were suppressed. Not only that, the Taliban offered a safe heaven for Al Qaeda to operate from Afghanistan, to launch a terror strike, the 9/11, in USA, offered asylum to Osama bin Laden to invite a retaliatory attack by the USA that kept the country under foreign occupation for 20 years.
If that was not enough, the country failed to take the advantage of nation building efforts by USA and other allies during those 20 years. Bullions of dollars were poured into the country, but the country failed to build a decent army and security infrastructure, forget about development of the country. Even Japan and Germany underwent worse devastation after WW2, but they rebuilt their countries fairly well within 20 years under the same US occupation, didn't they? Wasn't Vietnam bombed down to the ground by the US? But they came back. But Afghanistan could not. Some will blame Afgan politicians and middleman, but they are Afgans, too, after all, aren't they?
Hiroshima, immediately after atomic bombing
Hiroshima, today.
That was for Afgans. Then there are undertakers and morgue workers engaged in postmortem of the situation. Some are blaming USA, but they forget that USA went there for revenge, which they could afford. People calling it wrong are hypocrites, because if they were countries as powerful as the USA, they would have done the same, that is classic human nature. Then there are the kinds like one of the authors of an answer of this question calling for Modi to befriend Xi Xinping and Iran; I mean, are you serious? What for?
And we all know about Pakistani media and politicians living in delusion land. But one thing is sure. This Frankenstein is theirs and it will come after them for it's pound of flesh.
Meanwhile, let's see what the ruling dispositions of other stakeholders like Iran, India, China, Russia, Kazakhstan etc do. It is not yet clear.
Majority of people will point towards Uzbekistan , Tajikistan , kazakistan , Turkmenistan , Malaysia will say this are also islamic countries how they are peacefull , why ? Malaysia already has aisan civilization base before religion..
Uzbekistan , Tajikistan , kazakistan , Turkmenistan , this all are former Soviet State , atheism forced down through throat for half of centuries.. they all adopted Russian values..
Afganistan currently need Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
Who can bring revolution !! Where ordinary people can breath again have job and employment , gender equality have to guaranteed , wahibism and saudism permanently banned all religions indoctrination have to stopped..
For economic aid they have compromise with west to get rebuilding aid from IMF , Paris club , or get infrastructure and economic from China..
But sadly it's geographical located between sunni nuclear owned country pakistan and another side a Shia Iran , both countries have different interests in Afghanistan ..
First nearby countries have to be stabled then only you can think about afghanistan…
I simply do not understand what more Americans could have done. What could they achieve in the next 10 years that they could not manage in the first 20? When would be a good time to leave? The original sin was big - no doubt about it. The Americans needed blood after 9/11 and went where they could find some. But after this, they have bent over backwards and supported several versions of Afghani government and armies. Their eventual departure was a surprise only to those who get surprised by Monday immediately after the weekend.
The current surrender of territory by Afghani army makes a bunch of things clear 1) Institutional corruption is sky high in Afghanistan 2) Pakistan plays a crucial role in proceedings 3) Taliban ideology is more broadly ingrained than we thought it was. 4) This one bleeding obvious. The army is bollocks and refuses to raise to any challenge.
What now? Let the Taliban have a go
Perhaps they will be less violent than before. Perhaps they will be more merciful. Perhaps they will be less vindictive. Perhaps they will not. But it is time for the rest of the world to accept that the Taliban is Afghanistan’s reality. It is unfortunate in the extreme, but there is very little the rest of the world can do. After having been trained, mentored and funded by the richest army in the history of mankind for 20 years; and then having material, headcount and technological advantages, the army gave up in shorter time than it takes to paint a house.
It is a reminder for the rest of the world that a combination of heady ideology and military prowess can turn out toxic if allowed to run amok. We should all fight tooth the nail against any group in any Country that claims to hold the key to some form of pure lifestyle. If some puritans get sanction without someone calling out their BS, they can go full-on crazy and ruin a Country.
We should keep bull-shitters on the fringe and be super-severe with any group that uses violence as a route to anything.
Ronald Reagan, George W, FDR, Ike,JFK and even Nixon would be turning over in their graves!!!!
What the hell just happened?
21 years, Billions of Dollars of US Taxpayer money.
Billions!!!!!
Reassurances given to the locals in Afghanistan that “America is there for you. America will protect you”
And in 21 years - What did they do?
Yes around 56000 Afghani Taxi drivers and small time businessmen owe their jobs to Bush and Obama but apart from that?
This is the USA - their reputatation today.
First they say “America will Protect”
Next they say “Americans First” and scurry out like Rats citing orders
Thousands and Thousands of Afghanis who trusted the Americans and believed the Taliban was neutered now risk losing their lives and property.
Their Credibility is ZERO today.
In Business, In Trade, In Army matters - a Big Zero. Nobody can be sure anymore of anything the US says.
Today rather than intelligent reasoning and generous assistance, they resort to cheap bullying to keep semblance of power.
Tell me one Country which benefited from the Americans post the 1960s?
What Now?
Nothing. The Old days. Burqas and Chadors, Marriages for Women at 14, Islamic Banking
The US are not in the least bit credible as allies and they have lost all their bonafides with Afghanistan.
Once they said “However long it takes to free Afghanistan from the clutches of the Taliban”
Today they changed their stance.
Every President has suggested withdrawal but noone followed through except Joe Biden the biggest ditherer of them all.
And India will now see more trouble. The Taliban will help their troublemaking friends in Pakistan , with Kashmir.
PM Modi !!! for heavens sakes get your head out of the illusionary non existent world you live in and strengthen ties with Xi and Putin and even Iran!
These Taliban fighters, theyre not the small fry terrorists against whom Modi declared victory. If they decide to interfere in India, we are in big trouble.
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