Because the house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes, the house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet big, and then you take the house.
Nolan’s perfect hand hasn’t come along just yet. Mind you, not in terms of artistic merit, but in terms of what the Academy deems ‘Oscar-worthy.’
You can’t win an Oscar on talent alone.
When Steven Spielberg was starting out, he revolutionised popular film-making, much like how Nolan’s efforts have essentially made him the patron saint of ‘intelligent blockbusters.’
Jaws gave birth to the blockbuster as we know it. Then we have a spate of classics – Close Encounters of the Third Kind, E.T and Raiders of the Lost Ark.
Spielberg was nominated for Best Director for the latter three, losing each time.
On two of those years, the Best Director Oscar went to the director of a historical drama, the tried and tested genre for maximising Oscar recognition.
After his popular phase, Spielberg began making more ‘serious’ fare, ultimately winning the gong for Schindler’s List – a movie about the Holocaust; it was the perfect hand, Spielberg bet big, and he took the house.
Historical dramas, war movies and biopics are the likeliest to get nominated and win.
Moreover, since there is a significant parallel between Best Picture and Best Director (Of the 91 films that have been awarded Best Picture, 65 have also been awarded Best Director), more often than not, you have to make those kinds of movies to bolster your chances.
After years of making innovative, intelligent thrillers and sci-fi movies, Nolan finally got his first Best Director nomination for Dunkirk, which while a great cinematic experience, remains one of his lesser efforts. However, it was a WW2 movie, so there you go.
Nolan has had a profound impact on the Oscars, without ever winning one.
The non-nomination of The Dark Knight during the 2009 ceremony was a significant reason the number of nominees was increased from five to ten.
That decision paved the way for the likes of Mad Max to be nominated.
Despite his somewhat fraught relationship with the Oscars, he does have five nominations.
However, given that he wasn’t even nominated for Inception (You can dislike the movie, but as a directorial effort, it was sublime), it’s clear what he must do to win the ultimate award – cast Christian Bale, My Cocaine (read with an English accent), Morgan Freeman and Tom Hardy, set it in the 1908, pick a ‘serious’ topic, and pick up that Oscar.
Alternatively, just make a movie about the Holocaust. The Best Director Oscar will manifest in his lap before the cameras begin rolling.
Don’t believe me? Ask Roman Polanski, who won Best Director for The Pianist, despite pleading guilty to raping a 13 year old girl.
Here’s the deal – at this point, the Oscars need Nolan more than he needs them because he has something they are desperate for, and something they keep losing each year – relevance.
To be fair, the voting body has gone through a bit of an overhaul, and perhaps a few years down the line, that will manifest itself in more meaningful ways.
But for now, you still have to make an ‘important’ movie to have a genuine chance.
There are anomalies of course, but more often than not, a Green Book will win over a Roma.
And Nolan doesn't make a Green Book, at least not for now.
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