Very interesting question that many people frequently ask themselves.
To begin with, a quick tour of the forces involved:
- Facebook is the king of social networks with Facebook, WhatsApp, or Instagram.
- Google is a hegemonic leader in the field of search engines. Google has been able to extend its empire in all the other areas that serve as a gateway to the Internet: OS for smartphones with Android, web browsers with Google Chrome, ChromeBook, ... Google continues to diversify in a whole bunch of areas with connected speakers, autonomous cars, ...
- Apple which is the most capitalized company among these giants. Its success has mainly revolved around the sale of its iPhones and iPads for the past ten years. However, the firm led by Tim Cook has begun to diversify into services and this is starting to bear fruit.
- Microsoft which is omnipresent in administrations with Windows, its Office suite, and its cloud solutions. Microsoft has begun a shift towards open source since the arrival of Satya Nadella. This is a huge success, and the comparison with Steve Ballmer, the former CEO, is totally to Satya Nadella's advantage. Microsoft also owns LinkedIn, GitHub, ...
- Amazon, which is the world's leading e-commerce site and the most real-world presence among these giants with a huge supply chain that employs hundreds of thousands of employees worldwide. Amazon is also a giant of the cloud which is becoming the leader of the speakers connected with Alexa. Amazon has also entered the video streaming war against Netflix, Disney+ and Apple TV+.
These giants seem to be unstoppable today.
In history, however, we have seen rapid falls of companies that seemed untouchable.
So everything can go very fast.
The biggest risk for these companies is to be found on the side of the regulators who want to limit their power. In the European Union, the desire to dismantle Facebook or Google is often mentioned.
The Democrats in the United States have a similar will to limit the power of these giants, and to revive the innovation that these giants are phagocyting by buying up all the innovative startups that are growing and could potentially overshadow them in the future.
Among these 5 giants, the two most exposed are Facebook and Google.
I'll even put Facebook in the front line because the various scandals that have plagued Mark Zuckerberg's company in recent years make it an ideal target. If one of these giants has to be dismantled first, it will be Facebook.
Then comes Google, whose omnipresence is an embarrassment.
Microsoft and Apple are less troublesome. Their revenues are not directly linked to the exploitation of personal data. Microsoft has already resisted regulators in the past.
Apple has a strong community of supporters who will continue to buy its products no matter what. Its diversification in services is starting to pay off as well.
Nevertheless, Microsoft is better established in administrations with Windows, its Office suite, and its cloud offers. I think Microsoft is more likely to resist.
Finally, there is still Amazon. Amazon is also disturbing because Jeff Bezos' company imposes very difficult working conditions on its employees, while killing small businesses around the world.
The problem is that Amazon has a huge supply chain that is located in the real world. Amazon employs hundreds of thousands of employees around the world. Amazon employs a lot of low-skilled people who would be left without a solution if Amazon were to disappear.
Under these conditions, it will be difficult for governments to go after Amazon without causing a lot of social damage.
Taking all this into account, my conclusion is the following:
Facebook < Google < Apple < Microsoft < Amazon.
This is obviously just a feeling, but I think that if there were a blue wave in the November 2020 presidential election, Facebook and Google would be the first two to suffer heavy consequences.
To be continued.........😀
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