If you had to predict the next major war, which two major countries would start it? predict the next major war, which two major countries would start it?
In SHORT: Not China, not the USA, and not Russia.
Look back 100 years and consider what the world looked like in the fall of 1913, shortly before Europe started the most destructive war in history—a war that would not only kill 16 million people globally, but also remain unresolved until 1945, after an additional 55 million had perished.
Here was the situation:
- The Great Powers of the World were known quantities to each other, having more or less been the same players ever since Napoleon had been defeated in 1815. They were: Germany, Austria, Great Britain, Russia, France, and the youngest of them all--having only emerged after the defeat of Spain in 1898—the good ol' USA
- The Great Powers were in a simple set of alliances intended to check each other's power. France, having been defeated by Germany in 1871 and having felt isolated during that conflict, embraced alliance with Russia in 1894, and with Britain in 1904—the "Triple Entente". Austria and Germany, fearing encirclement both from the east and west, formed what would be called the "Central Powers". Both alliances signed up lesser powers to carry the water--the Entente had Japan plus France and Britain's vast colonial empires; and the Central Powers had Italy and Turkey. Only the USA stood apart in splendid isolation
The easiest way to think about this is perhaps with a map. The awesome board game "Diplomacy" perfectly illustrates what Europe looked like right before WW1
[Source: Google]- The economies of the Great Powers were bound together in a way that we modern folks often don't realize. By some metrics, in fact, the global economy was more interconnected in 1913 than it was at any other point in the 20th century until pretty recently! [Page on Cepr]
You could argue that what led to the war getting so big so fast was not this relatively stable situation amongst Great Powers, but rather the Great Powers' proxies—small interests in peripheral places. Thus Britain, which shared enormous economic and cultural links with Germany (and monarchs who were cousins!), was from the start bound to join the war by its loyalty to Belgium. Russia, long an ally of Serbia, felt compelled to stand by it against a threatening Austria. So when some Serbian anarchist shot the heir to the Austrian throne while he was touring Sarajevo, the whole edifice, seemingly stable in its balance of interest against interest, suddenly caved in on itself.
So all that being said, what are the facts today? Well, here's a start:
- I would opine that the Great Powers today are the USA, China, and Russia. India is a runner-up, with a huge population, big army, big economy and nuclear weapons
- Among lesser powers, you have France and Britain which are, despite their nuclear arsenals, middling and in the midst of a generalized decline of European power; Japan, Korea, and Germany, US-allied non-nuclear states with powerful militaries and advanced economies; and Israel and Iran, the only two real nation-states in the Middle East, with powerful militaries and either nuclear-armed or close to it...oh, and they detest each other
- The big alliances today are: NATO, a US-led alliance comprising Europe and North America
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a Russia- and China-led strategic partnership of Central Asian states
Russia's own odd mix of alliances with former constituents of the USSR
- Most crucially: The global economy is vastly more interconnected than at any point in history, yet as WW1's example shows, that doesn't mean war can't break out
What was true in 1913 is true in 2013: The Great Powers themselves are too smart and too interdependent to start a war with each other. Whatever war happens in the future, it won't be one of the so-called "Great Powers". But what could very well happen is that a Chinese ally, or a Russian ally, or an American one does something dumb...thinking that their big powerful friend has got their back.
So really what this question comes down to is, what country is likely to poke the wrong person in the eye at the wrong time? Hmmmmm...
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My bet for where it all starts is Asia. Sure, there are problems in Africa and to a lesser extent Latin America, and sure there are lots of natural resources in those places. But do big huge global wars get fought over control of the resources themselves? Or do they get fought over trade routes, ethnic population centers and goofy things like nationalism? In my view, it would be more about the latter... The Asian Continent has a lot of these three elements, and compared to Latin America or Africa, Asian countries great and small spend truly enormous amounts on their militaries. There are so many little rivalries, backed by so much deadly hardware, and backed up even more by the Great Powers' support, that I just don't see anything of comparable intensity breaking out in a different continent. The USA does not, for instance, put much effort behind its relationships with Egypt, or Nigeria, or Colombia, as compared with, say, South Korea.
North Korea
Why: North Korea probably doesn't think it could win a military conflict with South Korea or Japan, which are its nearby enemies. But the North Korean government is unstable, corrupt, unpredictable to outsiders, and prone to making outlandish threats. Furthermore, like any country, its dictator has domestic constituents whom he must appeal to by rattling the saber.
What could happen: A coup attempt takes place. Kim Jong-Un must quash the rebellious officers, painting them as a foreign faction abetted by the South. Fearing that US-allied South Korea could take over the North and bring rival troops right up to its border, China sends the army to stabilize the border region, but ends up caught in between rival North Korean units who are now engaged in civil war. The anti-Kim elements pledge not to attack South Korea in exchange for aid, which it reluctantly provides; China must, by default, pick the other side, eventually drawing the two, and the USA, into war.
Taiwan
Why: Taiwan's status is sort of a nebulous concept. It is not recognized by the USA or most other countries as independent. Yet for decades, America has armed and supported it militarily, which (whether we like to acknowledge it or not) is a huge stick in China's eye. It sits aside hugely important trade routes and occupies a key position on the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Western Pacific.
What could happen: The USA begins to doubt Taiwan's commitment to independence and stops selling it weapons that it fears could end up in Chinese hands (or at least, in Chinese intelligence's technology portfolios). China simply declares that the whole of the island is now under its protection, knowing that without the latest US weapons, it cannot resist. But Japan, which depends on the Middle Eastern oil tankers for its energy (now that nuclear isn't an option), as well as states with an interest in halting Chinese claims over the South China Sea—like Viet Nam, the Philippines and Malaysia—strongly oppose this. The USA is drawn into conflict with China by its treaty obligations to the Philippines and Japan, and its desire not to be evicted permanently from the Pacific.
Afghanistan
Why: Afghanistan has foiled the efforts of the British, the Soviets and the Americans to stabilize it and transform it into a reliable base of regional power. It's also surrounded by powerful countries with competing interests. Iran is afraid of Afghan heroin and ethnic strife and is wary of the Pakistani-supported Taliban, despite having collaborated with them at times to evict the USA. Russia and China have similar, broader interests in stabilizing Central Asia, given the large number of Muslims in their respective countries and their treaty obligations under the SCO. India is friendly with Iran, rivals with China and engaged in a never-ending chess match with Pakistan. And Pakistan has allied with China as a check against India.
What could happen: The possibilities are endless once the USA leaves Afghanistan. What happens if Iran carries out a threat it has made in the past, to move in militarily and protect ethnic Persians from Taliban persecution? Does Pakistan make a move of its own? If so, will China, which is rapidly developing its own commercial interests in Afghanistan, support it? Will Russia and India seek to balance them out? What happens if, conversely, Afghanistan emerges as a stable country? Whose side will it pick—and will everyone else simply respect that? China and India could go to war, as they have in the past. Russia and Iran could go to war. Russia and China could go to war. Some of these are very old conflicts, going back centuries. With America seemingly down for the count in Central Asia, the center of it is up for grabs, and that seems like a recipe for conflict that could blow up massively.
Edited 8 Dec 2013 @ 901: Changed "England" to "Britain", at the insistence of several eminently polite British readers. :)
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