If Biden wins in a landslide, what will become of the conservative movement in the United States?

If Biden wins in a landslide, what will become of the conservative movement in the United States?

In 2008, Barack Obama won a crushing victory.

What happened in 2010? The conservative movement scored one of its best victories ever.

Democrats lost 63 seats.

We are still living in the world created by the 2010 election. The Democratic agenda was completely stymied.

This isn’t a game or a movie. It’s never over. The other side doesn’t just go away because you’ve won one or two elections in a row. They regroup and come back ready for a fight. I expect Democrats to get divided by the spoils of victory. There are going to be disagreements over how far to push leftwards and how quickly. There are going to be disagreements over which parts of the liberal agenda should get precedence. There are going to be disagreements over what kind of personnel should staff regulatory agencies. There are going to be disagreements over whether to abolish the filibuster, add more states, and expand the Supreme Court.

Every piece of legislation passed by the Democratic Congress is going to be the result of a compromise tilted in favor of the most conservative factions of the coalition. Liberal idealists will feel sold out. And the enthusiasm of 2018 and 2020 will be gone by 2022. Meanwhile, every Democratic victory, however small, however moderate, however compromised will be portrayed like the end of America in the conservative mediasphere. Conservatives are going to be mad as hell, and they’re going to turn out in massive numbers in 2022. It’s going to be liberal apathy versus conservative enthusiasm.

I would love to be wrong, but I am not optimistic. I have seen liberals stay away from the polls too many times to have any confidence in our coalition. We only seem to show up when there is an unpopular Republican president in office: 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2020. Otherwise, not enough of us show up to defend our legislative majorities. I hope the Democratic Party gets as much done as they possibly can in 2021 and 2022. It might be our last chance to get anything big enacted for a decade or more.

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