- Note: This is a right wing answer and if you donot like it kindly leave it. No offence.
Joe Biden is a familiar figure in India as he was Barack Obama's vice-president for two terms. But he lost that touch during the time when Donald Trump became the president of USA. There will be some areas where he will follow Trump regarding India, and others where he would diverge.
Defence, strategic and security relations will likely follow a path that has remained largely the same since 2000, but there is a divide in the Biden camp about its approach to China, which could have implications for India. Leaving China in South China sea and in Asia could lead to a power vaccum, where imperialist China could get new territories through debt trapping and salami slicing techniques.
India and the US will have trade problems regardless of who occupies the White House. H-1B visas are unlikely to return to the way they used to be. However, a Biden administration could also bring up accusations of majoritarianism and Kashmir, which could gather traction in a Democrat-heavy Congress. It could be leaning towards more pro-INC government than pro-BJP government.
Here is what it means:
- Biden and Kamala Harris
Biden comes with Kamala Harris, who, as vice-president, may play a big role in policy making. As he has indicated that he may be only a one-term President, Harris is a shoo-in candidate for 2024. Harris has been in controversy about mentioning Jammu and Kashmir. Harris is reported to have said: “We have to remind the Kashmiri people that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.”
Harris has continued her criticism of the Modi government, and even lashed out at External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar for not meeting her colleague Pramila Jayapal, who has also been a staunch critic of India’s action in the Valley.
Harris said she stands with Jayapal. "I'm glad her colleagues in the House did too," she said responding to a news report in The Washington Post which said that Jaishankar refused to attend a meeting of House Foreign Affairs Committee, because Jayapal was also scheduled to be present in that meeting along with other lawmakers.
- Common global challenges
Biden reached out to Indian-Americans in his campaign and has a benign view of India. The US-India relationship having become institutionalised will be difficult to undo. Anthony Blinken, a top Biden strategist, has said, “We cannot solve common global challenges without India being part of the deal... strengethening and deepening the relationship with India is going to be a very high priority." Biden wasn't keen enough about India leading the South and southeast Asian region, during his a senatorship. Sayan Mukherjee (सायन मुखर्जी)'s answer to Is Joe Biden pro-India or anti-India?.
- Defence and security
Defence, strategic and security relations between a Biden administration and India will largely stay on the path they have followed since 2000. Under Biden's administration through Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, it could pressurise India in buying only America made military equipments which are expensive compared to Russia. We could lose our old ally, Russia .
- Relations with China
Team Biden is divided in its approach to China. This would have implications for US-India and India-China relations. Some of his advisers have taken a Trump-like hawkish view of China. Others say it is impossible to disentangle the US and Chinese economies, so there may be a decoupling in national security and critical technology areas, but not more. Biden was keen on repairing ties with China to boost trade in between those countries. It would make difficult for those companies who are leaving China and settling in Vietnam, Bangladesh and India.
- Indo-Pacific strategy
The Biden campaign has not made its Indo-Pacific strategy clear. As the region is the central focus of Indian foreign policy, this space would have to be watched. During his vice-presidentship, he wasn't able to convince Japan, Australia and India to form QUAD. I hope that he will be able to continue the formally declared QUAD pact during his presidency diligently.
- Trade issues
India and the US will have trade problems, no matter who is in power. During the Obama administration, too, trade friction between New Delhi and Washington was rampant. A Biden administration is not going to be forgiving on trade. Besides, Biden has his own version of Make America Great Again. Bill Burns, a top adviser to Biden, has said: “First and foremost, American foreign policy must support domestic revival.”
- Human rights violations
As Biden administration may take note of human rights violations in India, accusations of majoritarianism, Jammu & Kashmir and repression therein. This could gather traction in a Democrat-heavy Congress, particularly among the progressives.
Joe Biden has been disappointed by the measures that the government of India has taken with the implementation and aftermath of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam and the passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act into law, the he said.
India has defended its move, saying the special status provisions only gave rise to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir. It has asserted that the abrogation of Article 370 is its “internal matter“.
- Counterterrorism in Afghanistan
It was Biden who proposed the US keep only a counterterrorism presence in Afghanistan. So, Trump’s withdrawal of troops is unlikely to be reversed. Furthermore it may pressurise India to take a militaristic role in Afghanistan, if America choses to leave Afghanistan.
- Paris Agreement
Biden will certainly take the US back into the Paris Accord on climate. But India can expect to come under fire from him on coal use.
- H-1B visas
H-1B visas are unlikely to return in the way they used to be. While this could impact Indian techies, the pandemic has boosted remote working.
Source: What a Biden administration will mean for India | India News - Times of India
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